Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
Summary
The article analyses Nvidia's potential under $100 in 2026 using a binomial asset-pricing framework, emphasizing volatility dynamics and the limits of pure random-walk assumptions. It derives implied volatility from option prices, prices options via a binomial tree, and then calibrates option-implied probabilities to real-world probabilities, arriving at a cautious 10-14% chance of crossing below 100.