War Prediction Markets Are a National-Security Threat
Summary
The Atlantic article argues that war-focused prediction markets like Polymarket pose serious national-security risks due to insider trading and the potential leakage of privileged information. It cites real-world bets surrounding Iran and Venezuela, regulatory gaps, and expert concerns about how such markets could influence military decisions. The piece calls for stronger oversight and cautions that these markets could be exploited by adversaries or well-informed bettors.