Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets
Summary
A Guardian/AP report shows a cluster of newly created Polymarket wallets placed highly specific bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire just before an announcement, yielding substantial profits. Public blockchain data analyzed by Dune indicates multiple accounts being used to place early bets, raising questions about insider information and prompting calls for regulatory definitions in prediction markets.