How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
Summary
An analysis of shifting AGI timelines among top AI forecasters from 2023 through 2026, showing forecasts moving earlier in 2023–2025 and revisions in 2026 as new progress emerged from Anthropic, xAI, Meta, and Gemini. The piece uses a visualization of median forecasts and argues forecasters update their timelines in response to recent advances, with different eras producing different directions of update.