The gap between open weights LLMs and closed source LLMs
Summary
An analysis of the gap between open-source LLMs and closed-source LLMs using the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. The author suggests a forecast that the gap could shrink to zero by December 3, 2026, but cautions this is based on a single benchmark while 18 benchmarks show a more nuanced picture with an average lag around five months. The piece highlights coding benchmarks improving the most and concludes that an open-source singularity remains uncertain and measuring LLM quality is complex.