The AI Superforecasters Are Here
Summary
The article discusses AI superforecasters—AI systems augmented with scaffolds to perform forecasting tasks—highlighting demonstrations of forecasting performance, comparisons to human forecasters, and potential implications for finance, policy, and prediction markets. It argues that scaffolded AI forecasters may approach or exceed human performance in certain domains, while noting ongoing questions about biases, measurement, and the future role of AI in epistemic infrastructure.