Four Time Scales for Technology Development and Deployment
Summary
Rodney Brooks outlines four time scales of technology development and deployment: New Research Ideas, Hype Generation, At-Scale Deployment, and Reshape the Economy. He argues that accurate forecasting requires distinguishing ongoing research from hype and notes that real impact emerges only over decades, with examples spanning neural networks, AI hype cycles, and autonomous driving. The piece provides a framework for evaluating AI and robotics progress, useful for planning strategy and communicating realistic timelines to audiences.