P[drive failure]: how reliable is your NAS?
Summary
This post analyzes the reliability of personal NAS setups by modeling two failure modes: whole-disk failures and latent sector errors (LSE). It discusses RAID1 with btrfs, SMART monitoring, and scrubbing as defense, and computes data-loss probabilities across different levels of redundancy, showing that single-drive NAS has high risk while adding multiple mirrored drives dramatically reduces risk.